For as many years as I have been bringing articles to your doorsteps, each season I offer an update on the waterfowl migration and what we may expect for the upcoming season. It seems for almost a decade and a half, my report has not delivered good news for the avid waterfowler. Poor hatches from the drought-stricken prairies in the Dakotas and through Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba, seem to be the rule rather than the exception. Loss of vegetation around impoundments leaves many nests somewhat exposed making them much more prone to being detected by predators. When the ducks and geese have concentrated nesting due to fewer water sources, the predators congregate also for easy pickings.
Even after a successful hatch, the ducklings and goslings are not out of the water, for birds of prey have a field day from above and pike and muskies rise from the depths to thin the clutch as well. Though I hate to be the bearer of bad news, the 2023-2024 waterfowl season doesn’t seem to offer much better hope this year than they have in the past. I’ll explain.
In the United States, the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. This process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting seasons and bag limits. In addition, the proposed regulations are made available for public comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Canadian Wildlife Service, various state and provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation organizations.
In addition to providing current information on the status of waterfowl populations, this report is intended to aid in the development of waterfowl harvest regulations for the following season in the United States, this being the 2024-2025 hunting season. So, let’s delve into the numbers and talk about where we are for this year.
The total waterfowl population, ducks only, for 2023 is estimated at 32.3 million birds. I will break this down into species with the percent change from 2022 and the percent change from the long-term average (LTA).
Mallard: 6.129 M birds, -18% from 2022 and 23% for LTA
Gadwall: 2.562 M birds, -5% from 2022 and +25% for LTA
American Wigeon: 1.890 M birds:-14% from 2022 and -28% LTA
Green-Winged Teal: 2.504 M birds, +16% from 2022 and +15% LTA
Blue-Winged Teal: 5.253 M birds, -19% from 2022 and +2% LTA
Northern Shoveler: 2.859 M birds, - 6% from 2022 and +8% LTA
Northern Pintail: 1.784 M birds, +24% from 2022 and -43% LTA
Redhead: 0.931 M birds, -13% from 2022 and +27% LTA
Canvasback: 0.619 M birds, +6% from 2022 and +5% LTA
Scaup: 3.519 M birds, -4% from 2022 and -29% LTA
I did not find current wood duck numbers, but I think they are up somewhat, but don’t hold me to this. Also, I did not include other species that would make up the balance to equal the 32 M bird tally. Sorry Jimmye, for the table you’ll have to compose. Anyway, you will note from the long-term averages, many species are significantly down from what they once were or should be. I vaguely recall, somewhere in my feeble brain, that we were at 100 million ducks back in the 1980s. Perhaps this was back in the heydays in the 40s. Surely though, I am positive we had around 70 million birds when I was at my peak in my duck hunting career. So where do we go from here?
I am certain the conversations around the buffets and bars at Christmas parties will be revolving around the ducks. The same question, “Where are the ducks” will be asked repeatedly by guests. Truthfully though, albeit sad, there are no ducks. To make matters worse, unless something changes quickly, the sloughs, oxbows, and other duck holding impoundments, are dry as a powder house. For those who can pump water, you better start now. The soil profiles are weak as pond water, and it will take a lot of diesel fuel to saturate these cracked-open soils. One can walk across many cypress brakes that normally are four to six feet deep this time of year.
Of course, this will benefit those with water on opening day. The ducks will be concentrated with the first build-up of migrating birds. I have seen it before. The first day of season will be great for those with water, the second day will be fair at best, and the third day, barely will a shot be fired. Then it will be up to Mother Nature as to what she sends our way next, that being favorable weather and new ducks. Not to be a Debbie-downer, but I am not optimistic at all about this season. Now why would I predict this?
The crops have long been harvested. The fields have been sub-soiled and rowed up for next year’s growing season. Any leftover grain from our extremely efficient combines has long since sprouted or has been buried far beneath the reach of a duck’s bill. In other words, the Mississippi Delta will be a mud flat this winter, that is if we start receiving rainfall. Don’t blame our producers, for the margin is extremely thin on having a profitable crop. We need every kernel of corn and every soybean to deliver to the elevator to make this thing we call farming, work. So, unless you’re farming for ducks and leaving hundreds of acres of standing corn, soybeans, and rice, don’t expect much in the form of feeding waterfowl visiting your decoys.
Hunting pressure has been increasing year after year, and competition for ducks is ongoing. Millions of dollars are spent each year on leases, travel, license sales, and more. Many small towns in the Arkansas and Mississippi delta depend on the dollars generated by duck hunters for their survival. I haven’t even looked at the season dates, nor the bag limits, for this year. I expect them to be very similar to what they have been in the past. I know I’m about to ruffle some feathers, but if the truth kills granny, let her die. We better take some pressure off the ducks. Boom, no pun intended. I bet my phone begins to ring now. I wonder, just for kicks and grins, if we brought our limits down and significantly reduced our season lengths, if we would have an impact on the duck numbers for the future? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that for every mallard that goes into the bag, that’s one that won’t be making the long flight back to Canada to make more fuzzy ducklings for the future.
I have mentioned this same scenario to our turkey biologists for several years, though it has also fallen upon deaf ears. No worries, for I’ll have another opportunity to visit with them in the coming months, but back to the ducks. I wish we could somehow see into the future what would happen by greatly limiting our seasons and harvest for a few years. I know waterfowl biologists are squirming in their seats right now and for sure, Ducks Unlimited executives are. I have a good friend who calls me “long in the tooth.” He says that because I have been in the duck blind for over 50 years and I have seen, and experienced, what it used to be like. I know what I’m talking about.
My similar article last year ran about three weeks later than this one will. In fact, I was walking through the sage brush to look at a buck in Oklahoma when my phone rang with a biologist on the other end wanting to talk about my article. I called him back several times, but we never got the chance to catch up. I wonder if he’ll call again now. I hope so.
What are your thoughts regarding this subject? After all, we all have the same agenda, we would like to have more mallards, boots down, settling into our decoy spreads. Maybe we can get there again someday. Give me a call or send me a note at jeff.north@azelis.com and we’ll visit. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Until next time enjoy our woods and waters and remember, let’s leave it better than we found it.
