A recent column by George Will praised a Texas congressman who is focused on getting the federal budget under control and putting a stop to deficits.
But if what Will wrote on The Washington Post website is accurate, the Republican congressman, Rep. Chip Roy, is not really that serious about deficits, because both he and Will ignore half of the equation that has helped create the country’s budget problem for many years.
Like many who are familiar with the budget, Roy believes the key to restrained federal spending is restructuring programs like Social Security and Medicare. He also would like to reduce the “woke, weaponized and wasteful” bureaucracy by $3 trillion over 10 years — while leaving defense spending at current levels.
Will’s column did not cite any specific programs that Roy said could be part of this $300 billion per year spending cut.
But there is no doubt that the so-called entitlement programs are overdue for change. Will cites the American Main Street Initiative think tank, which reports that today’s percentage of the American population over age 75 is about the same as the percentage that was over 65 when Social Security began in 1935. However, eligibility for full benefits has only increased by two years, to age 67, since then.
Translation: Social Security is paying its retirees for more years than it used to, which is one reason the program is in financial trouble.
The same is true for Medicare. Sally Pipes of the Pacific Research Institute says 10% of the population was over 65 when Medicare began in 1965. Today, 17% of Americans are above that age. Pipes says raising the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 would save $22 billion a year.
However, even Roy is opposed to raising eligibility ages. He didn’t get to Congress by being stupid; he knows that voters would punish any elected official who excessively tampers with their retirement plans.
People like Roy talk about cuts, cuts, cuts. Which are needed. But there is another way out of this retirement program mess, one that will take true political willpower to achieve.
Roy seems to be focusing on federal spending. If he’s paying any attention to tax revenue, Will didn’t say it. But specific, targeted tax increases are the most likely solution to the federal budget problem.
For example, Social Security payroll taxes have been unchanged since 1990, with employees paying 6.2% of each check into the program, and employers matching that payment. Same for Medicare, which since 1986 has gotten 1.45% of workers’ pay, along with a matching amount from employers.
It is not rocket science to see that the work force has changed greatly since those tax rates were set up. And smart politicians of both parties could make the argument to voters that either payroll taxes must increase or benefits must be reduced.
Nobody likes a tax increase. But if the alternatives are a retirement age of 75 or Social Security insolvency, a third, better path is clear.
Are Roy and other Republicans willing to consider higher payroll taxes? In 2017, before Roy got to Congress, the GOP widely supported President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — which had the effect of increasing the budget deficit that Roy claims to be so worried about. You can look it up.
Will’s column did perform a public service of introducing a new word for Americans to remember: quadrillion. It is 1,000 trillion. It’s the next number in size after million, billion and trillion. Will, again citing the American Main Street Initiative, says the government has added more debt during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, adjusted for inflation, than all prior years combined.
If the national debt rises for the next 60 years at the rate it has for the past 30, Will said the government will owe $1.5 quadrillion, or $1,500 trillion if you want to look at it in current terminology. We currently owe $31 trillion.
This is a problem for Congress, not the president. Article I of the Constitution specifically gives Congress the authority to spend and tax. Roy may be right that his peers have been doing a lousy job of budgeting, but until the people in Washington get serious about the finances, on both the spending side and the taxing side, these problems will get worse.
